Phil Steele ranks Tennessee football at No. 18 for the upcoming season. This spot feels too low for a team that fans expect to dominate. The real test comes from the schedule, which includes six teams ranked in the top 16. According to On3 Volunteers, this path is much harder than most people think.
The gap between the preseason rankings and the actual schedule tells a clear story. Tennessee faces Texas at No. 5, Georgia at No. 2, and Oklahoma at No. 7. Steele also lists Ole Miss at No. 8 and Alabama at No. 11. These are not easy games for a team ranked outside the top ten. The Vols must beat these teams to prove they belong.
The Schedule Makes This a Tough Year
Per On3 Volunteers, the strength of this slate is undeniable. South Carolina sits at No. 16, while LSU and Florida follow at No. 21 and No. 23. Even the road game at Georgia Tech presents a challenge at No. 44. This is a gauntlet that will separate the good from the great. A team ranked No. 18 cannot afford many mistakes against this group.
ESPN offers a second opinion that matches this tough outlook. The College Football Power Index projects a 7-5 record for Tennessee this year. That number feels harsh for a fan base that wants more. The model gives the Vols only a 20.5% chance to make the 12-team playoff. This low probability highlights the difficulty of the upcoming months.
Why the Gap Between Rankings Matters
There is a big difference between being No. 16 in power and No. 18 in prestige. ESPN ranks Tennessee at No. 16 in their first Football Power Index update. Yet Steele drops them two spots lower in his full list. This split shows that experts are unsure about the team’s ceiling. The schedule strength ranking from ESPN places Tennessee at No. 14 toughest in the nation.
Fans need to understand that a 7-5 record is the likely floor. The model predicts a win-loss projection of 7.3 to 4.7 games. This means the team might just miss out on a bowl game. The chance to win six or more games sits at 80.8%. That is a high bar for a team with so many top-tier opponents. The margin for error is zero.
The kickoff times also show the pressure on the team. The Texas game lands at noon on ABC, which is a prime spot. The flex windows for Auburn, Alabama, and LSU mean these games could shift. A bad start against Texas could ruin the whole season. The Vols must be ready to play their best football right from the first week.
Do you think Tennessee can beat Georgia and Texas to make the playoff? The numbers say it is a very hard task for this roster. Tell us your thoughts in the comments below.
